![]() ![]() An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths and hospitalisations in the short term, but would lead to a faster resurgence in cases after January, 2021. A projected lockdown of greater than 4 weeks would reduce deaths but would bring diminishing returns in reducing peak pressure on hospital services. ![]() From Nov 5, 2020, a 4-week Wales-type lockdown with schools remaining open-similar to the lockdown measures announced in England in November, 2020-was projected to further reduce hospital admissions to 186 000 (179 000–193 000) and deaths to 36 800 (34 900–38 800). From Oct 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021, a projected COVID-19 epidemic without tiered restrictions or lockdown results in 280 000 (95% projection interval 274 000–287 000) hospital admissions and 58 500 (55 800–61 100) deaths. "COVID continues to be a nasty virus.We estimated a reduction in the effective reproduction number ( R t) of 2% (95% credible interval 0–4) for tier 2, 10% (6–14) for tier 3, 35% (30–41) for a Northern Ireland-stringency lockdown with schools closed, and 44% (37–49) for a Wales-stringency lockdown with schools closed. “Some judgment depending on your level of increased risk is really important now,” says Schaffner. This includes staying up to date with COVID-19 vaccines, testing if you have symptoms, staying home when sick, avoiding contact with sick people, wearing a mask, especially in crowded indoor spaces, and social distancing. In the meantime, people should assess their own risk on an individual basis and take precautions to protect themselves, the experts emphasize. While it may not match the BA.2.86 subvariant, it should be a good match for the Eris variant, which is currently dominant in the U.S. If you have yet to get the currently available booster, released last fall, then you should wait for the new shot, Azar advised. When the agency does make recommendations about who should get the booster this fall, the experts anticipate it will be for high-risk individuals - people over the age of 65, people with underlying heal conditions and the immunocompromised. The CDC has not yet released any firm guidance around booster doses for the fall. Food and Drug Administration, says Schaffner. Vaccine manufacturers are currently working on an updated COVID-19 booster, which will likely become available in mid to late September once it gets approved by the U.S. We have vaccines, we have an antiviral that works very well." However, Azar pointed out that we are more prepared now for an increase in COVID cases than we've ever been: "We’re in a different place than we were a few years ago. “We’ve always had the expectation that there was going to be a seasonality to COVID, kind of similar to flu, that we’re going to see this ebb and flow,” she added. “It’s really important to reinforce that the absolute number is still much, much lower than in various different peaks throughout the last couple of years," said Azar. There is no need to panic, the experts emphasize, and unlike past summer surges, this recent uptick remains relatively low. Is COVID on the rise again? Yes, but don't panic. "There are still plenty of people getting together in close proximity for prolonged periods of time to provide opportunities for highly contagious variants to spread," says Schaffner. A rebound in summer travel may also play a role. While summer is a time to enjoy the outdoors, many people are also seeking refuge from hot temperatures in the air conditioning indoors, he adds. "Just looking at the behavior of COVID in the past, there have been summer increases in each of the past three years, and we're seeing that now," says Schaffner, adding that this just seems to be the way the virus behaves.
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